Tag: IT Vision

Celebrate 2013 Technology or Look to 2014?

    Jim D

The year is quickly winding down and 2013 will not be remembered as a stellar year for technology. Between the NSA leaks and Orwellian revelations, the Healthcare.gov mishaps, the cloud email outages (and Yahoo’s is still lingering) and now the 40 million credit identities stolen from Target, 2013 actually was a pretty tough year for the promise of technology to better society.

While the breakneck progress of technology continued, we witnessed so many shortcomings in its implementation. Fundamental gaps in large project delivery and availability design and implementation continue to plague large and widely used systems.   It is as if the primary design lessons of ‘Galloping Gertie’ regarding resonance were never absorbed by bridge builders. The costs of such major flaws in these large systems are certainly similar to that of a failed bridge.  And as it turns out, if there is a security flaw or loophole, either the bad guys or the NSA will exploit it. I particularly like NSA’s use of ‘smiley faces’ on internal presentations when they find a major gap in someone else’s system.

So, given 2013 has shown the world we live in all too clearly, as IT leaders let’s look to 2014 and resolve to do things better. Let’s continue to up the investment in security within our walls and be more demanding of our vendors to improve their security. Better security is the number 2 focus item (behind data analytics) for most firms and the US government. And security spend will increase an out-sized amount even as total spend goes up by 5%. This is good news, but let’s ensure the money is spent well and we make greater progress in 2014. Of course, one key step is to get XP out of your environment by March since it will no longer be patched by Microsoft. For a checklist on security, here is a good start at my best practices security reference page.

As for availability, remember that quality provides the foundation to availability. Whether design, implementation or change, quality must be woven throughout these processes to enable robust availability and meet the demands of today’s 7×24 mobile consumers. Resolve to move your shop from craft to science in 2014, and make a world of a difference for your company’s interface to its customers. Again, if you are wondering how best to start this journey and make real progress, check out this primer on availability.

Now, what should you look for in 2014? As with last January, where I made 6 predictions for 2013, I will make 6 technology predictions for 2014. Here we go!

6. There will be consolidation in the public cloud market as smaller companies fail to gather enough long term revenue to survive and compete in a market with rapidly falling prices. Nirvanx was the first of many.

5. NSA will get real governance, though it will be secret governance. There is too much of a firestorm for this to continue in current form.

4. Dual SIM phones become available in major markets. This is my personal favorite wish list item and it should come true in the Android space by 4Q.

3. Microsoft’s ‘messy’ OS versions will be reduced, but Microsoft will not deliver on the ‘one’ platform. Expect Microsoft to drop RT and continue to incrementally improve Pro and Enterprise to be more like Windows 7. As for Windows Phone OS, it is a question of sustained market share and the jury is out. It should hang on for a few more years though.

2. With a new CEO, a Microsoft breakup or spinoffs are in the cards. The activist shareholders are holding fire while waiting for the new CEO, but will be applying the flame once again. Effects? How about Office on the iPad? Everyone is giving away software and charging for hardware and services, forcing an eventual change in the Microsoft business model.

1. Flash revolution in the enterprise. What looked at the start of 2013 to be 3 or more years out looks now like this year. The emergence of flash storage at prices (with de-duplication) comparable to traditional storage and 90% reductions in environmentals will become a stampede with the next generation of flash costing significantly less than disk storage.

What are your top predictions? Anything to change or add?

I look forward to your feedback and next week I will assess how my predictions from January 2013 did — we will keep score!

Best, and have a great holiday,

Jim Ditmore

First Quarter Technology Trends to Note

    Jim D

For those looking for the early signs of spring, crocuses and flowering quince are excellent harbingers. For those looking for signs of technology trends and shifts, I thought it would be worthwhile to point out some new ones and provide further emphasis or confirmation of a few recent ones:

1. Enterprise server needs have flattened and the cumulative effect of cloud, virtualization, SaaS, and appliances will mean the corporate server market has fully matured. The 1Q13 numbers bear this trend is continuing (as mentioned here last month). Some big vendors are even seeing revenue declines in this space. Unit declines are possible in the near future. The result will be consolidation in the enterprise server and software industry. VMWare, BMC and CA have already seen their share prices fall as investors are concerned the growth years are behind them. Make sure your contracts consider potential acquisitions or change of control.

2. Can dual SIM smartphones be just around the corner? Actually, they are now officially here. Samsung just launched a Galaxy dual SIM in China, so perhaps it will not be long for other device makers to follow suit. Dual SIM enables excellent flexibility – just what the carriers do not want. Consider when you travel overseas, you will be able to insert a local SIM into your phone and handle all local or regional calls at low rates, and will still receive your ‘home’ number calls. Or for everyone who carries two devices, one for business and one for personal, now you still can keep your business and personal numbers separate, but only have one device.

3. Further evidence has appeared of the massive compromises enterprise are experiencing due to Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs). Most recently, Mandiant published a report that ties the Chinese government and the PLA to a broad set of compromises of US corporations and entities over many years.  If you have not begun to move you enterprise security from a traditional perimeter model to a post-perimeter design, make the investment. You can likely bet you are compromised, you need to not only lock the doors but thwart those who have breached your perimeter. A post here late last year covers many of the measures you need to take as an IT leader.

4. Big data and decision sciences could drive major change in both software development and business analytics. It may not be of the level of change that computers had say on payroll departments and finance accountants in the 1980s, but it could be wide-ranging. Consider that perhaps 1/3 to 1/2 of all business logic now encoded in systems (by analysts and software developers) could instead be handled by data models and analytics to make business rules and decisions in real time. Perhaps all of the business analysts and software developers will then move to developing the models and  proving them out, or we could see a fundamental shift in the skills demanded in the workplace. We still have accountants of course, they just no longer do the large amount of administrative tasks. Now, perhaps applying this to legal work….

5. The explosion in mobile continues apace. Wireless data traffic is growing at 60 to 70% per year and projected to continue at this pace. The use of the mobile phone as your primary commerce device is likely to become real for most purchases in the next 5 years. So businesses are under enormous pressure to adapt and innovate in this space.  Apps that can gracefully handle poor data connections (not everywhere is 4G) and hurried consumers will be critical for businesses. Unfortunately, there are not enough of these.

Any additions you would make? Please send me a note.

Best, Jim Ditmore

 

Smartphones and 2013: What we really want

    Jim D

With CES 2013 starting this week, we will see a number of new features and product introductions particularly in the Android space. Some of the new features are questionable (Do we really want our smartphones to be projectors?).  But the further fragmentation (just within Android but also with the advent of Tizen (the Linux-based OS)) will drive feature innovation and differentiation faster. And to help with that differentiation is an updated list of features that I’d like to see in 2013!

1. Multiple Personalities: It would be great to be able to use one device for personal and for business – but seamlessly. Consider a phone where your office or business mobile number ring to your phone as well as your personal number. And when your boss calls, the appropriate ring, screen background, contacts, and everything else aligns with the number calling. You can switch back and forth between your business world and your personal world on your phone, just as you do, but with one device not two (or if you are using one device today, you get both numbers, and no mixing). Some versions of these phones are available today, but not on the best smartphones, and not in a fully finished mode.

2. Multiple SIMs: Multiple SIM phones – where two or more SIM cards are active at the same time, have been available in some form since 2000. These enables you to leverage two networks at once (or have a business phone on one network, and a personal phone on another), or more easily handle different networks when traveling (e.g., one network for domestic, one for Europe and one for Asia). When you landed in a new country, you could keep your primary SIM in your phone, purchase a low cost local SIM and voila! you would still receive calls on your primary number but could make local calls inexpensively on the local SIM. Today, there are low end phones in developing markets or China where these features are available — so why not have this in the high end smartphones in the developed world? Samsung may be cracking this barrier – there are reports of a dual SIM Samsung high end smartphone. Perhaps Apple will follow? This would be much to the dismay of the carriers as it is then easy to switch carriers (call by call) and lower your costs.

3. Better, perhaps seamless voice: Siri can be good in some situations but like all other voice apps currently on the market, the limitations are real. And the limitations are particularly evident when you most need to be hands-free — like when you are driving. With the continued improvement in processor speed and voice recognition software, we should see next generation voice recognition capability that makes it an ease to use voice rather than a chore.

4. The nano-smartphone companion: How many times have you been either exercising or on a fishing trip or out for night out or an elegant evening, and the last thing you want to do is bring along a large, potentially bulky smartphone that you might lose (or drop in the lake)? Why can’t you have a nano iPod that has the same number and contacts as your iPhone that works as a passable phone? Then you can leave the iPhone at home bring your music and a nano cell phone, and not worry all evening about losing it! Again, the manufacturers must work with the carriers to enable two devices with the same number to be on the network and for you to chose to which one the calls ring. But think of the convenience and possibilities of having multiple orchestrated devices, each tuned precisely to what and when you want to use them. Isn’t this what Apple does best?

5. Better power management: Even with the continued advances in battery life, nearly everyone encounters each month times when their use or their apps have completely drained the battery. Today’s data intensive apps can chew up battery life quickly without the user being aware. Why not alert the user to high usage (rather than wait until the battery is almost dead to alert), and enable the option for power saving mode. when this mode is selected the phone OS switches apps to low power mode unless the user overrides. This will keep power hog apps from draining the battery doing unimportant tasks. It will avoid a late afternoon or evening travail when you discover your phone is dead and yet you need it to make a call.

6. Socially and physically aware: While there are plenty of apps that create social networks and provide some physical awareness and some phone plans that enable you to know where a family member is by their device location, you still require a precise device/app/option selected that minimizes the possibility of casual interaction with your known acquaintances. Consider your linked in network and when you are traveling for business, it would be excellent to be able to chose to let your links know that you are walking through O’Hare, and for those associates that chose similarly, you would know that your colleague John is at gate B5, which you happen to be walking by, and you can stop and chat before you have to catch your flight. You can chose to be anonymous, or just aware to your friends or links, or for extroverts, publicly aware. Unfortunately, this would require a common ‘awareness’ standard and security for devices and social sites, which at this stage of the social media ‘Oklahoma land rush’, it is doubtful that cooperation required would occur.

7. Better ‘offline’ capabilities: Far too many apps today still require a constant internet connection to work. Even for those apps where it is used when offline mode is likely, many apps still require an internet connection – translation apps and London tube apps come to mind. Why can’t you download 90% of the translation requirements to your app while on your home wi-fi, and then, when in Paris, bring up the app to suffice for faster translation offline instead of using international data rates? (At which point a paid translator would be cheaper and much faster). Again, I wonder how much collusion (or lack of common sense) goes on to encourage nonsensical data usage versus designing ‘data-lite’ apps.

These are the seven features I would like to see in 2013. And while I am sure that there are phones or apps that do some of the features, I think it would be an advance to have the features mainstreamed on the latest and best smartphones. (Though I am still looking for a great translation app with good ‘offline’ capability, if you know of one, please recommend it!). What features would you like to see in the next generation of smartphones in 2013?

Best, Jim Ditmore